However, I’ve uncovered the most easiest method to play on “sure bets”. It involves some risks, but it is quite sure. The secret is to combine pre-match bets with live bets. Let’s say we have a match with the following quotes:

1: 3,20 | X: 3,20 | 2: 2,10

Ok, let’s suppose that we want to bet 100$. We all know that if we bet 33.33% on each result, we will lose. If we try to equally share the risks, we will equally lose. In order to win we should have something like this:

1: 3,20 | X: 5,25 | 2: 2,10

But of course, no bookmaker will offer us such a wonderful opportunity. No bookmaker, except the bookmakers offering live betting!

Whoever plays live betting knows that the quotes are stable only as long as the result remains 0-0. However, statistically speaking, the 0-0 is the most rare football result. This means that when a team will score, the live X quote will instantly move from 3,20 to over 5,25. And that’s it! Place the bet and you will surely won something!

But remember, you must enter in the live bet having already placed separate bets on 1 and on 2 (or just place a bet on 1 or 2, if possible).  And your bets must be arbitraged. Just open an Excel and do the math. So, the secret is to bet on 1 and 2 and simply wait for the X quote during the live bet to become “sure bet”!

Today I played on 3 matches from the Europa League preliminary round:

Gefle IF vs. NSI Runavik 1 @ 1.08
Dundalk vs. Grevenmacher 1 @ 1.20
Ruch Chorzow vs. Shakhtior Karagandy 1/x @ 1.05

Combined quote: 1.36, stake: 66 RON. Bet won!

New bank: 223,76 RON (+11,88%)

• France vs. Mexico:  327 matches  vs. 241 matches (averages: 29,7 vs.  21,9 matches)
• England vs. Algeria: 339 matches vs. 232 matches (averages: 30,81 vs. 21,09 matches)
• Italy vs. New Zealand: 325 matches vs. 248 matches (averages: 29,54 vs. 22,54 matches)

Let’s analyse another 4 matches: Nigeria – Greece 1-2, Cameroon – Denmark 1-2, Germany – Serbia 0-1 and Spain – Switzerland 0-1.

• Nigeria vs. Greece: 214 matches vs. 262 matches (averages: 19,45 vs. 23,81 matches)
• Cameroon vs. Denmark: 291 matches vs. 272 matches (averages: 26,45 vs. 24,72 matches)
• Germany vs. Serbia: 340 matches vs. 268 matches (averages: 30,90 vs. 24,36 matches)
• Spain vs. Switzerland: 364 matches vs. 326 matches (averages: 33,09 vs. 29,63 matches)

What about some other teams?

• Argentina’s last 11 (against South Korea): 319 matches (average: 29 matches for each player, but Messi played 35 matches this season; without him, the average is 27,4)
• Brazil’s last 11 (against North Korea): 310 matches (average: 28,18 matches for each player)
• Paraguay’s last 11 (against Slovakia): 250 matches (average: 22,72 matches for each player)
• Chile’s last 11 (against Honduras): 301 matches (average: 27,36 matches for each player)
• Uruguay’s last 11 (against South Africa): 310 matches (average: 28,18 matches for each player)
• Netherlands last 11 (against Japan): 324 matches (average: 29,45 matches for each player)
• Australia last 11 (against Ghana): 243 matches (average: 22,09 matches for each player)
• Ghana last 11 (against Australia): 190 matches (average: 17,27 matches for each player)
• USA’s last 11 (against Slovenija): 277 matches (average: 25,18 matches for each player)
• Ivory Coast’s last 11 (against Brazil): 280 matches (25,45 matches for each player)
• Portugal’s last 11 (against Ivory Coast): 248 matches (22,54 matches for each player)

Simply put, France, England, Italy and Germany played against a much fresher teams, while Nigeria is very unexperienced (in fact they even have a player, Shittu, that didn’t made any single appearance for its club team, Bolton Wanderers). Spain played against a tired Swiss team, but Spain’s team is extremely tired (in fact they are the most tired team in the tournament!). Based on this, my predictions are as follows:

• Spain, Germany, England and Switzerland  will exit the tournament very soon (France is already out): this teams are physically and mentally too tired for such great competition.
• Italy and Netherlands will be the European teams that will make the best result.
• The new World Champion will be chosen between Argentina, Brazil or Uruguay. These teams gathered enough experience and, on the other hand, they are still fresh. The Final will be played between Argentina vs. Brazil or Argentina and Uruguay.

Ldb FC Malmo vs. Hammarby IF 1 @ 1.10
ROPS Rovaniemi vs. TPV 1 @ 1.18

combo 1.30, bet won! New bank: 73.26 RON

As usual, nordic women leagues are the golden egg. You simply cannot lose. One can easily bet 1000 euros and get 100 euros, as a free meal.

Kolbotn vs. Linderud Grei 1 @ 1.10 (Norwegian Woman soccer league)
Trans Narva  vs. Kuresaare 1 @ 1.10 (Estonian premier league)
Ekranas vs. Mazeikiai 1 @ 1.10 (Lithuanian premier league)

combo @ 1.33 bet won! New bank: 67,26 RON.

All this matches are very “sure”. Of course, everything can happen, but we’ll see.

Especially regarding the Norwegian woman premier league I observed that this competition is a gold mine. Every year the newly promoted teams are so weak that they regularly losing the matches played abroad against tougher teams.

There were also other interesting matches today, such as:

- Levadia Tallin vs. JK Nomme Kalju 1 @ 1.25 (Estonian premier league) Levadia are the current champions and they are dominating with authoriy the league, however Kalju are on the 4th place and they can get a great result. Beside this there are bookies out-there that gives 1.27 for Levadia and 8.00 for Kalju, which makes me think that the match is not so “sure”.

- Liepajas Metalurgs vs. Tranzit 1 @ 1.10 (Letonian premier league) I don’t understand why Liepajas has a quote so “sure”. Liepajas is on 3rd place with 5-3-0, and Tranzit on the 5th with 3-2-4. However all the bookies offer for Liepajas victory only “sure” quotes (1.10-1.12) and even a draw will be very well paid (6.40-7.00). For me it should be a much more tied match than it seems, so I’ve decided to not take the risk.

Regarding the World Cup matches, I suggest to refrain from betting until a full pair of matches would be played. For example, after the matches played yesterday I’m quite sure that Mexico and Uruguay will qualify from Group A while France and South Africa will go/stay home. Why this?

• France: traditionally, France’s playing style requires a good playmaker. France’s great successes came only when they had Platini or Zidane on the pitch. The current team doesn’t have such a playmaker. They play chaotically, passes are nervous, attacks are lacking precision. They rely more on individual gestures of Ribery or Anelka, but a strong defense can easily outplay them.
• South Africa: as anyone could seen on the match against Mexico, South Africa is a rudimentary team and nothing more. They are playing with 2 defense lines and hope to make a letal counter-attack that would eventually give them a goal. This is a very easy to understand playing style and I’m sure that Uruguay, who showed a strong defense against France, will beat them in the next match. Beside this, Carlos Alberto Parreira never managed to qualify a small team from the groups. He failed with Kuwait in ’82, with UAE in ’90 and with Saudi Arabia in ’98.
• Mexico: they clearly played the most beautiful football from the first day. They deserved the victory and in my opinion they are strong favorites to win the group.
• Uruguay: they showed great defense and good tactical skills. But they showed also too much fear against France. I’m sure that they will play much more relaxed in the next match, against South Africa.

1. The biggest problem of a gambling addicted (like myself!) is to refrain himself from betting. I was perfectly aware that the match Stabaek vs. Tonberg FK doesn’t fit in the system (so it’s risky), however I decided to bet. If you want to make money from the bookies, you must perfectly manage the art of refrain.
2. The bookmakers know that the average gambler either will play small stakes on big quotes, or big stakes on small, “sure” quotes, in order to ensure a nice gain. The bookmakers knows that the gambler simply wants to earn a lot of money. If you want to earn something, you will have to understand this! So, what’s the most logical way to earn something? Betting big money on big quotes? Of course not. Instead of this, you should try to bet small on small quotes, but make it several times on a row.

Stabaek vs. Tonberg FK, 1 @ 1.15

bet lost! After 90 minutes the score was 2:2. New bank : 47,71 RON.

Tonberg is a 3rd division team that already made a big surprise in the last Cup round, when they kicked out (playing at home) one of the favorites, Valerenga. In that match they had 3:0 in the first half, than Valerenga won the second half 0:2 but the match finished 3:2. So, I realy doubt that they will be able to kick out another 1st league team, this time playing abroad. I think that 1st half of the match against Valerenga was simply an accident.

Remember some of the principles of my betting system:

• think the  bet as a stock exchange investment
• in stock exchange one would be extremely happy to see its portfolio growing with 5% in a day!

Portugalia v. Mozambic 1 @ 1.12
St. Patricks v.  Bray Wanderers 1 @ 1.22

combo @ 1.37, stake 35 RON, bet won! New bank: 82,71 RON.

For Portugal this is the last match before the World Cup start, and it is a game against a very poor opponent. Mozambic is curently ranked around 130. On the other hand, Bray are one of the poorest teams in Irish first league (only 5 points in 12 matches) while St. Patricks are fighting for the title. The Bray team is also very young: their average age is around 21,21 years while St. Patricks are much more experienced, their average age being 25,47 years.

B93 Copenhagen v Allerod 1 @ 1.17
Rosenborg v Kongsvinger 1 @ 1.18
combo 1.38, stake 35 RON, bet won!

New bank: 69,76 RON. In just 2 days the bank is up with 51%.

B93 Copenhagen are former Danish champions, but nowadays they are playing in Danish 3rd Division. They are fighting for promotion, being at only 2 points behind the leader. They have 5 victories in the last 5 matches. Allerod are already relegated. Allerod were promoted last year but it seems that the Danish 3rd division was too difficult for them. B93 are clear favourites.

In the second match I have chosen to bet on Rosenborg, who are the current Norway champions, against the newly promoted Kongsvinger. Rosenborg seems to be on form while Kongsvinger are already fighting against relegation.

So, I played for 2 months. I’ve started with 100 RON and I was cashing-in an extra 151 RON quite easy, in just 40 days.  Not bad at all. Then I started to play “outside” the system and I’ve lost 75% from my money

But my ambition is to beat the bookies. Here is “my system” that gave me a 150% return on investment prior to start losing the money:

• Think the betting like a stock exchange investment activity – we must maximize profits, minimize losses and get a long-run profit.
• Bet only on “sure bets” (1,10-1,30) – in stock exchange one would be extremely happy to see its portfolio growing with 5% in a day!
• Rather bet on a combo of two x 1,10 than one single x 1,20.
• Rather bet on a combo of two than a combo of three, and a combo of three rather than a combo of four (never bet on more than 4, because it’s very risky).
• Try to bet on a daily basis, but don’t bet if you don’t feel confortably. This is very important! Stick to the plan and don’t bet if you are not sure or suspect that something wrong is going to happen.
• Always bet only 30% from your bank. If you keep betting on 1,10-1,20 quotes, chances to make a wrong bet are 10-20%. This means that you can put relatively “sure” bets 4-5 days in a row without losing (the longest run that I had was composed from 7 bets ). In the 5th or 6th day, if you lose, you can re-initiate the run with 60% from the former bank and have only 2 or 3 positive bets (quite easy to attain) until you can bet again only 30% from the bank.
• Bet only on team sports, especially on football (this is what I know better) and NEVER on individual sports – the risks are too high, as you never know what can happens with a favorite: maybe he/she’s sick in the day of the match or simply out of form, or the opponent has a wonderful day. But in team sports, even if one player has a bad day, the team can play well. FC Barcelona can beat any team in Spain with or without Messi on the pitch. Succesful teams dependant on a strong leader are very, very rare. I only can remember Napoli during the Maradona era, FC Arges with Dobrin, Galatasaray with Hagi. As anyone can see, not the strongest teams in the game. Great clubs such as Real Madrid, FC Barcelona, Bayern,  Chelsea, Man. United etc. – never depend on one player’s mood.
• Bet only on “1″or “1x” home as the final results – not under/over, not away matches, not score at pause and so on. There are teams such as FC Barcelona, Chelsea, Bayern Munchen etc. that are very hard losing points on home pitch, and only against very good teams. We must bet only on this type of event(s).
• Never, ever bet on dubious inferior leagues (Romanian Liga 2, Czech 2nd division etc.) . Even if some matches seem to be very “sure”, nothing is sure in such leagues. The money that players get playing in such leagues are very few and the temptations are very big. If the goalkeeper of one team has a secret arangement with some Asian bookmaker, nothing is “sure” anymore! If you want to bet in inferior leagues choose only trustful leagues, such as France’s Ligue 2 or Spain’s Segunda Division.
• If you want to bet on “sure” international friendlies, bet only on the following teams (when playing home): Germany, Holland and South American teams. Avoid the “latin” teams: France, Spain and Portugal. And avoid England. “Sure” friendlies means that their opponents are classified at least 50 positions lower in the FIFA Elo ratings system. On the other hand, you can easily bet against Andorra or Liechtenstein.
• Don’t bet on National Cups matches. Not even when among the matches are Real Madrid or Chelsea against some poor opponents. The Cup matches are too risky. In such Cup matches, the favorite teams are seldom playing with the “B” team and their opponents try to play over-ambitiously.
• Bet on International Cups, such as: UEFA Champions League, Europa League, AFC Cup, Copa Libertadores etc. Official competitions are the best places for the players to get noticed – so they will play with ambition and at their full potential. Don’t worry, a team from Luxembourg will never beat one from Holland. However, avoid to bet on Asian matches if the favorites are already qualified.
• Don’t take a 1,10-1,20 stake as granted! Always study a little bit the stake before betting. A good starting point is here: www.soccerway.com . Try to understand the risks lying behind a “sure” stake.

Enough saying! Today I started a new run with

Holland – Hungary 1 @ 1.17
Ekranas – Klapeida 1 @ 1.11
combo: 1.30, stake 10 dollars (35 RON). Bet won!

New bank: 56.46 RON