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Archive for the ‘Gambling’ Category

How to find very sure “sure bets”

I think that everyone knows something about “sure bets”. These are bets that, no matter who will win, you will gain. Of course, it’s quite impossible to find such bets at the same betting house, but you can bet on a quote at a bookmaker, and on another quote at another bookmaker.

However, I’ve uncovered the most easiest method to play on “sure bets”. It involves some risks, but it is quite sure. The secret is to combine pre-match bets with live bets. Let’s say we have a match with the following quotes:

1: 3,20 | X: 3,20 | 2: 2,10

Ok, let’s suppose that we want to bet 100$. We all know that if we bet 33.33% on each result, we will lose. If we try to equally share the risks, we will equally lose. In order to win we should have something like this:

1: 3,20 | X: 5,25 | 2: 2,10

But of course, no bookmaker will offer us such a wonderful opportunity. No bookmaker, except the bookmakers offering live betting!

Whoever plays live betting knows that the quotes are stable only as long as the result remains 0-0. However, statistically speaking, the 0-0 is the most rare football result. This means that when a team will score, the live X quote will instantly move from 3,20 to over 5,25. And that’s it! Place the bet and you will surely won something!

But remember, you must enter in the live bet having already placed separate bets on 1 and on 2 (or just place a bet on 1 or 2, if possible).  And your bets must be arbitraged. Just open an Excel and do the math. So, the secret is to bet on 1 and 2 and simply wait for the X quote during the live bet to become “sure bet”!

Gambling, again: how to beat the bookies

Ok, so after few weeks when I was in the World Cup fever, it’s time to play again. Taking into account that my betting system proved to be so succesfull, I have started a new season with a more consistent bank: 200 RON.

Today I played on 3 matches from the Europa League preliminary round:

Gefle IF vs. NSI Runavik 1 @ 1.08
Dundalk vs. Grevenmacher 1 @ 1.20
Ruch Chorzow vs. Shakhtior Karagandy 1/x @ 1.05

Combined quote: 1.36, stake: 66 RON. Bet won!

New bank: 223,76 RON (+11,88%)

Player fatigue, the cause of bad results at World Cup?

Some surprising results emerged in the second round of group games played at the World Cup. France-Mexico 0-2, England-Algeria 0-0 and Italy-New Zealand 1-1. For some people the results are surprising, but let’s study a little bit the player’s fatigue. Let’s throw an eye on the following statistics: how many matches the initial 11 players of every team played this season for the club team, prior to the World Cup?

  • France vs. Mexico:  327 matches  vs. 241 matches (averages: 29,7 vs.  21,9 matches)
  • England vs. Algeria: 339 matches vs. 232 matches (averages: 30,81 vs. 21,09 matches)
  • Italy vs. New Zealand: 325 matches vs. 248 matches (averages: 29,54 vs. 22,54 matches)

Let’s analyse another 4 matches: Nigeria – Greece 1-2, Cameroon – Denmark 1-2, Germany – Serbia 0-1 and Spain – Switzerland 0-1.

  • Nigeria vs. Greece: 214 matches vs. 262 matches (averages: 19,45 vs. 23,81 matches)
  • Cameroon vs. Denmark: 291 matches vs. 272 matches (averages: 26,45 vs. 24,72 matches)
  • Germany vs. Serbia: 340 matches vs. 268 matches (averages: 30,90 vs. 24,36 matches)
  • Spain vs. Switzerland: 364 matches vs. 326 matches (averages: 33,09 vs. 29,63 matches)

What about some other teams?

  • Argentina’s last 11 (against South Korea): 319 matches (average: 29 matches for each player, but Messi played 35 matches this season; without him, the average is 27,4)
  • Brazil’s last 11 (against North Korea): 310 matches (average: 28,18 matches for each player)
  • Paraguay’s last 11 (against Slovakia): 250 matches (average: 22,72 matches for each player)
  • Chile’s last 11 (against Honduras): 301 matches (average: 27,36 matches for each player)
  • Uruguay’s last 11 (against South Africa): 310 matches (average: 28,18 matches for each player)
  • Netherlands last 11 (against Japan): 324 matches (average: 29,45 matches for each player)
  • Australia last 11 (against Ghana): 243 matches (average: 22,09 matches for each player)
  • Ghana last 11 (against Australia): 190 matches (average: 17,27 matches for each player)
  • USA’s last 11 (against Slovenija): 277 matches (average: 25,18 matches for each player)
  • Ivory Coast’s last 11 (against Brazil): 280 matches (25,45 matches for each player)
  • Portugal’s last 11 (against Ivory Coast): 248 matches (22,54 matches for each player)

Simply put, France, England, Italy and Germany played against a much fresher teams, while Nigeria is very unexperienced (in fact they even have a player, Shittu, that didn’t made any single appearance for its club team, Bolton Wanderers). Spain played against a tired Swiss team, but Spain’s team is extremely tired (in fact they are the most tired team in the tournament!). Based on this, my predictions are as follows:

  • Spain, Germany, England and Switzerland  will exit the tournament very soon (France is already out): this teams are physically and mentally too tired for such great competition.
  • Italy and Netherlands will be the European teams that will make the best result.
  • The new World Champion will be chosen between Argentina, Brazil or Uruguay. These teams gathered enough experience and, on the other hand, they are still fresh. The Final will be played between Argentina vs. Brazil or Argentina and Uruguay.