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	<title>Inius Trivia &#187; world cup</title>
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		<title>Can you beat the bookies? (5)</title>
		<link>http://www.inius.ro/posts/50-can-you-beat-the-bookies-5.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.inius.ro/posts/50-can-you-beat-the-bookies-5.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 12 Jun 2010 05:44:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Lucian</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gambling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[beat the bookies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[world cup]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.inius.ro/?p=50</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The World Cup has begun, but I will not bet (yet) on World Cup matches. Instead, I have decided to bet on 3 matches from minor leagues: Kolbotn vs. Linderud Grei 1 @ 1.10 (Norwegian Woman soccer league) Trans Narva  vs. Kuresaare 1 @ 1.10 (Estonian premier league) Ekranas vs. Mazeikiai 1 @ 1.10 (Lithuanian [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The World Cup has begun, but I will not bet (yet) on World Cup matches. Instead, I have decided to bet on 3 matches from minor leagues:</p>
<p><span style="color: #008000;">Kolbotn vs. Linderud Grei 1 @ 1.10 (Norwegian Woman soccer league)</span><span style="color: #008000;"><br />
</span><span style="color: #008000;"> Trans Narva  vs. Kuresaare 1 @ 1.10 (Estonian premier league)</span><span style="color: #008000;"><br />
</span><span style="color: #008000;"> Ekranas vs. Mazeikiai 1 @ 1.10 (Lithuanian premier league)</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #008000;"> </span></p>
<p><span style="color: #008000;">combo @ 1.33 bet won! New bank: 67,26 RON.</span></p>
<p>All this matches are very &#8220;sure&#8221;. Of course, everything can happen, but we&#8217;ll see.</p>
<p>Especially regarding the Norwegian woman premier league I observed that this competition is a gold mine. Every year the newly promoted teams are so weak that they regularly losing the matches played abroad against tougher teams.</p>
<p>There were also other interesting matches today, such as:</p>
<p>- Levadia Tallin vs. JK Nomme Kalju 1 @ 1.25 (Estonian premier league) Levadia are the current champions and they are dominating with authoriy the league, however Kalju are on the 4th place and they can get a great result. Beside this there are bookies out-there that gives 1.27 for Levadia and 8.00 for Kalju, which makes me think that the match is not so &#8220;sure&#8221;.</p>
<p>- Liepajas Metalurgs vs. Tranzit 1 @ 1.10 (Letonian premier league) I don&#8217;t understand why Liepajas has a quote so &#8220;sure&#8221;. Liepajas is on 3rd place with 5-3-0, and Tranzit on the 5th with 3-2-4. However all the bookies offer for Liepajas victory only &#8220;sure&#8221; quotes (1.10-1.12) and even a draw will be very well paid (6.40-7.00). For me it should be a much more tied match than it seems, so I&#8217;ve decided to not take the risk.</p>
<p>Regarding the World Cup matches, I suggest to refrain from betting until a full pair of matches would be played. For example, after the matches played yesterday I&#8217;m quite sure that Mexico and Uruguay will qualify from Group A while France and South Africa will go/stay home. Why this?</p>
<ul>
<li>France: traditionally, France&#8217;s playing style requires a good playmaker. France&#8217;s great successes came only when they had Platini or Zidane on the pitch. The current team doesn&#8217;t have such a playmaker. They play chaotically, passes are nervous, attacks are lacking precision. They rely more on individual gestures of Ribery or Anelka, but a strong defense can easily outplay them.</li>
<li>South Africa: as anyone could seen on the match against Mexico, South Africa is a rudimentary team and nothing more. They are playing with 2 defense lines and hope to make a letal counter-attack that would eventually give them a goal. This is a very easy to understand playing style and I&#8217;m sure that Uruguay, who showed a strong defense against France, will beat them in the next match. Beside this, Carlos Alberto Parreira never managed to qualify a small team from the groups. He failed with Kuwait in &#8217;82, with UAE in &#8217;90 and with Saudi Arabia in &#8217;98.</li>
<li>Mexico: they clearly played the most beautiful football from the first day. They deserved the victory and in my opinion they are strong favorites to win the group.</li>
<li>Uruguay: they showed great defense and good tactical skills. But they showed also too much fear against France. I&#8217;m sure that they will play much more relaxed in the next match, against South Africa.</li>
</ul>
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