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Posts Tagged ‘sport’

Can you beat the bookies? (1)

I like to bet from time to time. I have started betting during the World Cup ’94, when I correctly guessed all the matches from the 1/8 phase onward, except the match between Bulgaria and Mexico (I have placed my bet on Mexico but Bulgaria won on penalties). I also played during the WC ’98, 2002 and 2006. Nothing serious, just for fun. Than I’ve lost some money on Gamebookers in 2007 and I have decided to stop betting for all. However!… recently, a lot – and I really mean: A LOT of agencies opened up on my street, so I was tempted to play again. But this time playing with a betting system in mind!

So, I played for 2 months. I’ve started with 100 RON and I was cashing-in an extra 151 RON quite easy, in just 40 days.  Not bad at all. Then I started to play “outside” the system and I’ve lost 75% from my money :)

But my ambition is to beat the bookies. Here is “my system” that gave me a 150% return on investment prior to start losing the money:

  • Think the betting like a stock exchange investment activity – we must maximize profits, minimize losses and get a long-run profit.
  • Bet only on “sure bets” (1,10-1,30) – in stock exchange one would be extremely happy to see its portfolio growing with 5% in a day!
  • Rather bet on a combo of two x 1,10 than one single x 1,20.
  • Rather bet on a combo of two than a combo of three, and a combo of three rather than a combo of four (never bet on more than 4, because it’s very risky).
  • Try to bet on a daily basis, but don’t bet if you don’t feel confortably. This is very important! Stick to the plan and don’t bet if you are not sure or suspect that something wrong is going to happen.
  • Always bet only 30% from your bank. If you keep betting on 1,10-1,20 quotes, chances to make a wrong bet are 10-20%. This means that you can put relatively “sure” bets 4-5 days in a row without losing (the longest run that I had was composed from 7 bets ). In the 5th or 6th day, if you lose, you can re-initiate the run with 60% from the former bank and have only 2 or 3 positive bets (quite easy to attain) until you can bet again only 30% from the bank.
  • Bet only on team sports, especially on football (this is what I know better) and NEVER on individual sports – the risks are too high, as you never know what can happens with a favorite: maybe he/she’s sick in the day of the match or simply out of form, or the opponent has a wonderful day. But in team sports, even if one player has a bad day, the team can play well. FC Barcelona can beat any team in Spain with or without Messi on the pitch. Succesful teams dependant on a strong leader are very, very rare. I only can remember Napoli during the Maradona era, FC Arges with Dobrin, Galatasaray with Hagi. As anyone can see, not the strongest teams in the game. Great clubs such as Real Madrid, FC Barcelona, Bayern,  Chelsea, Man. United etc. – never depend on one player’s mood.
  • Bet only on “1″or “1x” home as the final results – not under/over, not away matches, not score at pause and so on. There are teams such as FC Barcelona, Chelsea, Bayern Munchen etc. that are very hard losing points on home pitch, and only against very good teams. We must bet only on this type of event(s).
  • Never, ever bet on dubious inferior leagues (Romanian Liga 2, Czech 2nd division etc.) . Even if some matches seem to be very “sure”, nothing is sure in such leagues. The money that players get playing in such leagues are very few and the temptations are very big. If the goalkeeper of one team has a secret arangement with some Asian bookmaker, nothing is “sure” anymore! If you want to bet in inferior leagues choose only trustful leagues, such as France’s Ligue 2 or Spain’s Segunda Division.
  • If you want to bet on “sure” international friendlies, bet only on the following teams (when playing home): Germany, Holland and South American teams. Avoid the “latin” teams: France, Spain and Portugal. And avoid England. “Sure” friendlies means that their opponents are classified at least 50 positions lower in the FIFA Elo ratings system. On the other hand, you can easily bet against Andorra or Liechtenstein.
  • Don’t bet on National Cups matches. Not even when among the matches are Real Madrid or Chelsea against some poor opponents. The Cup matches are too risky. In such Cup matches, the favorite teams are seldom playing with the “B” team and their opponents try to play over-ambitiously.
  • Bet on International Cups, such as: UEFA Champions League, Europa League, AFC Cup, Copa Libertadores etc. Official competitions are the best places for the players to get noticed – so they will play with ambition and at their full potential. Don’t worry, a team from Luxembourg will never beat one from Holland. However, avoid to bet on Asian matches if the favorites are already qualified.
  • Don’t take a 1,10-1,20 stake as granted! Always study a little bit the stake before betting. A good starting point is here: www.soccerway.com . Try to understand the risks lying behind a “sure” stake.

Enough saying! Today I started a new run with

Holland – Hungary 1 @ 1.17
Ekranas – Klapeida 1 @ 1.11

combo: 1.30, stake 10 dollars (35 RON). Bet won!

New bank: 56.46 RON