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Can you beat the bookies? (5)

The World Cup has begun, but I will not bet (yet) on World Cup matches. Instead, I have decided to bet on 3 matches from minor leagues:

Kolbotn vs. Linderud Grei 1 @ 1.10 (Norwegian Woman soccer league)
Trans Narva  vs. Kuresaare 1 @ 1.10 (Estonian premier league)
Ekranas vs. Mazeikiai 1 @ 1.10 (Lithuanian premier league)

combo @ 1.33 bet won! New bank: 67,26 RON.

All this matches are very “sure”. Of course, everything can happen, but we’ll see.

Especially regarding the Norwegian woman premier league I observed that this competition is a gold mine. Every year the newly promoted teams are so weak that they regularly losing the matches played abroad against tougher teams.

There were also other interesting matches today, such as:

- Levadia Tallin vs. JK Nomme Kalju 1 @ 1.25 (Estonian premier league) Levadia are the current champions and they are dominating with authoriy the league, however Kalju are on the 4th place and they can get a great result. Beside this there are bookies out-there that gives 1.27 for Levadia and 8.00 for Kalju, which makes me think that the match is not so “sure”.

- Liepajas Metalurgs vs. Tranzit 1 @ 1.10 (Letonian premier league) I don’t understand why Liepajas has a quote so “sure”. Liepajas is on 3rd place with 5-3-0, and Tranzit on the 5th with 3-2-4. However all the bookies offer for Liepajas victory only “sure” quotes (1.10-1.12) and even a draw will be very well paid (6.40-7.00). For me it should be a much more tied match than it seems, so I’ve decided to not take the risk.

Regarding the World Cup matches, I suggest to refrain from betting until a full pair of matches would be played. For example, after the matches played yesterday I’m quite sure that Mexico and Uruguay will qualify from Group A while France and South Africa will go/stay home. Why this?

  • France: traditionally, France’s playing style requires a good playmaker. France’s great successes came only when they had Platini or Zidane on the pitch. The current team doesn’t have such a playmaker. They play chaotically, passes are nervous, attacks are lacking precision. They rely more on individual gestures of Ribery or Anelka, but a strong defense can easily outplay them.
  • South Africa: as anyone could seen on the match against Mexico, South Africa is a rudimentary team and nothing more. They are playing with 2 defense lines and hope to make a letal counter-attack that would eventually give them a goal. This is a very easy to understand playing style and I’m sure that Uruguay, who showed a strong defense against France, will beat them in the next match. Beside this, Carlos Alberto Parreira never managed to qualify a small team from the groups. He failed with Kuwait in ’82, with UAE in ’90 and with Saudi Arabia in ’98.
  • Mexico: they clearly played the most beautiful football from the first day. They deserved the victory and in my opinion they are strong favorites to win the group.
  • Uruguay: they showed great defense and good tactical skills. But they showed also too much fear against France. I’m sure that they will play much more relaxed in the next match, against South Africa.

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